2013-2014 winter weather forecast wars begin

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Some winter weather outlooks are suggesting the type of snows that blanketed the area during the winters of 2009-10, and 2010-11. This image was taken after a 2010 snowfall near Batsto./R.J. Liberatore Jr. Some winter weather outlooks are suggesting the type of snows that blanketed the area during the winters of 2009-10, and 2010-11. This image was taken after a 2010 snowfall near Batsto./R.J. Liberatore Jr.

You may not like the 2013-2014 winter weather forecast for southern New Jersey, the Middle Atlantic and the New England states that was issued by AccuWeather, the Weather Channel, the National Weather Service, Weather Advance and the Weather Centre.

Their combined outlooks offer some interesting trends to ponder, however.

Though many people admit forecasting the weather more than five days down the road can lead to a predictable accident, some well-known and some not-so prominent forecasters have begun to issue their forecasts for the upcoming season.

The Philadelphia area television stations – NBC10, 6ABC and CBS3 - along with NBC40's Dan Skeldon - have usually issued their winter weather forecasts in November.

No one forecaster knows that he or she can get a forecasting handle on all of winter’s three phases when issuing a winter outlook. There’s the cooldown from autumn to winter and the needed ability to forecast how long the warmth of the ocean will impact the Jersey Shore. Forecasters also have to determine how soon a Canadian snow pack will open the attic door to an arctic invasion of winter weather.

Then during the deep freeze months of January and early February, forecasters wrestle with the possibility of detecting how continuing arctic plunges of cold air will interact with the North Atlantic Oscillation’s blocking effect. Will it be cold enough to create monster snowmakers, or will it be so cold that any precipitation is pushed out to sea?

Finally, it’s difficult to predict when the warmth of spring will finally begin to bully away Ol’ Man Winter’s grip on North America.

It’s especially troubling to forecast any trend 90 days out when Mother Nature enjoys throwing a curveball at weather forecasters. Just ask the hurricane gurus who all failed to determine how a dry air mass and wind shear would cripple any hurricane development in 2013.

Though winter weather forecasting is difficult, still they try. You can find confidence in a winter outlook when a majority of forecasters begin to agree on something.

So let’s take a look at the 2013-2014 winter weather forecasts that are already out there.

Weather Channel 2013-2014 winter weather forecast

If you long to keep the golf clubs out, ride a motorcycle, or enjoy cycling in above-freezing temperatures, you’ll like the Weather Channel's outlook for this winter.

Though the Weather Channel forecasting team is calling for temperatures to remain below normal in November, the crew is calling for a warmup in December to well-above normal temperatures.

Though their winter weather forecast opens the door to an early ski season in the Pocono Mountains of Pennsylvania and the Catskills and Adirondacks of New York, their calling for above-average warmth in December could create a decent fall sweater season across the Middle Atlantic and New England States this year.

But after the warmth comes the cold, and bitter cold it will be. The Weather Channel eyes much colder-than-normal temperatures in January and February when arctic air finally moves east from its stronghold on the Midwest.

AccuWeather 2013-2014 winter weather forecast

Buy your snow salt now, if you believe the AccuWeather 2013-14 winter forecast for the Middle Atlantic and New England States. AccuWeather joins the Weather Channel in calling for a warm start to the winter. Early on, the storm tract will form west of the I-95 corridor in the Middle Atlantic States, AccuWeather says, and through the western portion of New England.

But when the cold air arrives in January, all bets are off in the areas east of I-95. Then areas such as New York, Philadelphia, Washington, Baltimore and Atlantic City could be in store for big storms fed by a combination of below-normal temperatures and abundant moisture off the Atlantic Ocean.

National Weather Service 2013-2014 winter weather forecast

The men and women who make up the National Weather Service say their jobs are to save lives by accurately forecasting the weather today, tomorrow and next week. So they aren’t too keen on giving a blow-by-blow account of what’s going to happen in mid-January until we sing "Auld Lang Syne."

Looking ahead to the winter weather forecast issued by the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, the National Weather service indicates a warm start to November for the eastern half of the United States. There are equal chances of warmer- or colder-than normal temperatures through the first half of the season with warmer-than-normal weather taking hold in February, the service predicts.

Weather Centre Blogsport 2013-2014 winter weather forecast

Weather geeks will enjoy the Weather Center’s 2013-2014 winter weather forecast, which contains several thousand words and a dozen or so graphs and tables outlining how north Pacific Ocean oscillations, typhoons, the arctic vortex, a weak El Nino and the dreaded North Atlantic oscillation will impact the upcoming winter for the Middle Atlantic and New England states.

When you boil it down, I wouldn’t buy those Super Bowl tickets just yet.

According to the folks at the Weather Centre, the Middle Atlantic and New England states are target for big, powerful nor’easters this winter. Temperatures will remain near average and precipitation could be more or less than normal. A big storm would change everything, however.

Remember that daily temperatures weren’t terribly colder than normal during the snow years that came during the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011.

The Weather Centre keeps the arctic conditions bottled up in the upper Midwest and calls for the Great Lakes region to be this year’s snowmageddon bull’s-eye.

Weather Advance 2013-2014 winter weather forecast

Danté Brown-Royal and the crew at the Weather Advance have seemed to have a handle on Middle Atlantic winter weather and especially during the snow years.

Their most recent 2013-2014 winter weather forecast update for southern New Jersey and the Middle Atlantic states calls for a combination of the worst of the Weather Channel’s and AccuWeather’s outlooks.

According to Weather Advance, the southern portion of the Middle Atlantic States could be prone to wild temperature swings. New Jersey, Philadelphia and New York are forecast to experience slightly below-average temperatures, while Massachusetts, Rhode Island and Connecticut are predicted to struggle through a colder-than-normal winter.

All of the Middle Atlantic and New England states will get above-average precipitation this year, according to the Weather Advance. That means southern New Jersey will get slightly more snow than normal, but New York, Newark, Trenton, Boston and the rest of New England will receive above-average snowfall.

Snow records could fall in the Great Lakes cities such as Buffalo, N.Y.; Erie, Pa.; Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago.

Weather trivia

To find out when 87 people were trapped for months in mountain snows, click here to see today’s Shore Weather daily trivia.

For March 3 commentary on the snow see I know why it won't stop snowing

 


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